"Anticipating Solar Maximum: The 2024 Surge in Solar Activity and Its Potential Impact on Earth"

Anticipating Solar Maximum: 2024 Surge in Solar Activity and Its Potential Impact on Earth

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Sun will be at their maximum between January and October 2024. It will reach the most severe situation. It will be a year earlier than usual. 2019 is said to be at its highest and most intense earlier than predicted. The sun’s solar activity is said to have an average cycle of 11 years. We have to look at the condition of sunspots, which are caused by the magnetic field on the surface of the sun, and estimate the state of solar activity. Just looking at the solar dynamo that I mentioned just now, and looking at the currents of iron plasma, the state of the magnetic field… in other words, they predict the state of the solar cycle. It is estimated that the current solar cycle will start from 2020 and end in 2032. Throughout the process, the most severe conditions, For example, there will be more solar flares .. They say that more CMEs will be released in 2024. This can be seen as the peak time. 

These super solar storms happen once or twice a century. If it was the Carrington incident in 1859, they would know. In between, it’s like this. It happened once in 2012, but at that time the world escaped. 

If it happens, experts will notice the solar flares that are the forerunners. At this time, scientists have noticed that these solar flares are becoming more and more intense. 

At the time of this supersolar storm, billions of tons of plasma from the magnetic field can escape from the Sun in the form of a very large CME. The speed of those guys is strong, The distance between the Earth and the Sun can be about 150 million kilometers in one day. 

If the Earth’s magnetic field were to be compressed from the outside by the precursor shockwaves of these CMEs, the Earth’s magnetic field could be compressed from the outside. But if it’s not like that, if the CME’s magnetic fields go in the same direction as the world’s magnetic field and waves, the two fields will merge. If they come together and cross at high speed, it’s like stretching the world’s field. A long tail was left from the field, and the energy there accumulated; From this, high-energy particles will hit the earth in large quantities. This is called Geomagnetic Storm. This Geomagnetic Storm can penetrate the Earth’s magnetic field called the magnetosphere and enter the atmosphere. The shields of the world 

(Describing this process in writing is quite difficult, it will be more visible if you go to the Internet and look for some videos that describe it) 

Hundreds of years ago, no one seemed to care much about these things. 

But in the 21st century, in our daily life, metals, wires, Coexistence with other devices.. What kind of problem can it cause? 

I don’t know if you remember the dynamo I just mentioned. Magnetic force can cause electric current. 

In this era, it takes hundreds of kilometers to transport electricity. There are thousands of cables, In the case of transformers, the magnetic fields and electrically charged particles that can enter this atmosphere can cause serious problems. Deviation of currents that are normally there, Disturbance, Depending on where a CME energy wave hits, it can disrupt currents in electrical grid systems. They say that if the situation is bad, the power supply fluctuates, and the transformer may break. When the solar storm hit in 1989, it happened in Quebec and Canada. 

In 1859, they will know about the Carrington event. He said that as far as scientists can study, it is the most powerful geomagnetic storm that has ever happened in the world. Even in regions like the Caribbean, it is said that the Northern Lights appear. At that time, there was only telegraph as a modern network system. This is why all the telegraph systems around the world went down. 

In 2012, there was a solar storm almost as big as Carrington. But at that time, the world’s path was slightly off course, so nothing major happened. Even so, power systems around the world were still quite affected. When it comes to fixing those systems, the United States alone costs $2.6 trillion. It took 4 to 10 years to fix everything.

How strong will this storm be? Can you touch the world? It is a situation that even experts cannot predict how it will continue. CME is a maximum of 12 hours if you know it in advance. As can be accurately estimated, only for a short time, electricity, Internet may be down. In order to make accurate predictions, we have enough events and records to review what happened in the past. Not enough data. According to a research in 2019, it is possible that there may be Super Flares called Super Flares outside of Superstorms in stable bodies. These guys are many times more intense than the CME. If there was some kind of super storm, the biggest, the strongest, and the most powerful in history, and it hit the world directly, it would be unthinkable. 

However, scientists are not sure whether CMEs come from the sun or not. I spend a few hours a day and monitor him every day. If it was released from the sun, If the path of the world is coming straight, the earliest you can know in advance is a few days. These are the times when the electricity goes out, There may be network outages; If the outages cannot be recovered in time, the problems that may occur around the world can be serious. Everything in the world Everything that runs is based on electricity. 

There is a way to solve it. As far as I have observed, in countries with advanced technology, the electricity networks are not connected to the main lines, but have separate systems. If a solar storm causes a network outage, you can keep the backup system open for a while while you quickly restore it. Another thing, when that happens, transformers, If we cut off the electrical systems for a while, we can escape from this. If there is no current flow, there is no interference. I will cut it off for a while, I will come back later.

Many developed countries already have the necessary systems in place to deal with such risks. Countries like Myanmar are far away.

If this situation can actually happen, it can happen. Electric lights, It is possible that the internet will be out for months. There is never 0 and 100 percent when doing systematic research. not It cannot be said that it will happen completely (completely) by chance. At most, the probability is 0.0001 and 99.99. Beyond this, it cannot be said from both ends.

If the time comes, it is possible that international organizations will talk about the details of the disaster prevention process on a global scale. The current situation is that no one can decide what will happen. 

There is nothing to worry about. If you think logically, a strong solar storm from the sun will come straight towards the earth. Even if it were to hit Earth directly, it would have to overcome Earth’s magnetic fields and atmospheric layers first. After all the possible equilibria are continuously broken, the rest of the Internet is out, Power outages will continue. 

As a reader, as long as you are not an astronaut working in the International Space Station, you still have a long way to go to worry about life risks. No, Myanmar does not have electricity for at least eight hours a day, so I don’t think there will be much difference just because of a natural disaster.

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